Forecasting the Tomorrow of Destinations
You can predict the future. It’s not hard, really. Sure, it’s next to impossible to be spot on correct; but if you can let go of some of your general assumptions about how the world works, and engage your creativity and “horizon scanning” to plan for multiple futures, you could not only be prepared for just about anything, but you could also be poised to take advantage of it.
The people who do well at “horizon scanning” are typically in charge of making strategic decisions. Most of our workforce isn’t paid to think strategically – we’re focused on the day-to-day immediate business of products and services – so we often simply don’t. But it’s essential – 90% of our work should be connected to a core strategy at least three years out; and if we’re planning to try anything new, we need to be “horizon scanning” beyond three years.
Garry Golden is the President of Forward Elements Inc., and conducts a workshop for management teams called “Demystifying the Future.” Golden says the most common problem is that teams only reach out to him once a shift has happened, once the crisis has arrived. This reactive approach to strategy creates a really difficult environment for the companies to dig themselves out of; and with just a little bit of foresight work, it could’ve been avoided.
Gary advises to follow smart, passionate people who are the thought leaders in their industries, not media headlines and books. It’s about keeping an eye on obscure fields of research, like programming and software, to detect weak signals of change. He also advises to closely follow transportation and energy industry developments – they’re the two largest sectors in the world, and their changes have implications that trickle down into every other business across the planet.
We are on the cusp of a major transition, in the form of two technological jumps. First off, technology is becoming far more intelligent; and as it knows more about us and our world (both past and present), it will begin to serve us better. Take IBM’s Watson, a “deep question and answer system” which recently demolished both reigning Jeopardy champions after being fed millions of lines of data about history, art, literature, and more. In the very near future, Watson may listen in as a doctor speaks with his patient; and after scanning its knowledge database, far deeper than the doctor’s and growing by the millisecond, could advise the doctor on treatment.
Also right around the corner is the idea of personal power – going back to batteries with a massive amount of power, and away from wired electricity. These mini power plants, which turn hydrogen-rich fuel into electricity on demand, could eliminate wall sockets, charging cables, and power lines. Think of the implications of scrambling to charge your phone in an airport, a building without wired electricity, the complete elimination of power outages after a natural disaster…
In this issue of Destinology, we bring you predictions in four destination divisions, looking at real-world trends that are starting to change the future of your destination today.
Elizabeth Merritt
Founding Director, Center for the Future of Museums
What was your journey up to leading the Center?
I was staring deeply into a microscope one day when I asked myself, “what’s the most fun you can imagine at work,” and the answer was no longer ‘molecular biology,’ but was ‘museums.’ After stints at a small children’s museum in S. Dartmouth and a natural history museum, I wanted to be part of the greater ‘museums’ picture. I joined the AAM; and as we approached our 100th anniversary in 2006, we determined that the best way to prepare museums for the next 100 years was to create the Center. The saying went, “give it to Elizabeth, she’ll do anything,” and so here we are today!
Why is “predict” a nasty word to Futurists?
Because no one can ‘predict’ the future. Consider this – your life tomorrow will be a lot like it was today; next week, pretty much the same; next month, still probably relatively similar. However, the farther out we go, the wider the possibilities of our future become – this is known as “The Cone of Plausibility.” We investigate multiple possible futures, not just one.
What other industry do you watch closest?
Museums are fundamentally education institutions, so education is an incredibly important industry. Futurists talk about “the end of an Era” – when a dominant innovation completely transforms an industry. We know we’re coming to the end of industrialized education’s era – there are lots of signs of wide dissatisfaction and ineffective expenditures. The ending innovation could be a combination of many things, but we’re fairly certain it’ll take the form of self-directed, passion-based, experiential learning, which is the root definition of education at museums.
How is the culture at museums changing?
Museums have traditionally focused on and operated within their own walls. Today, the strongest museums are becoming major leaders and educators in their entire community – far beyond their own walls. The Museum of Northern Arizona in Flagstaff is a prime example, where they conducted a STEEP analysis of the city, saw a wide range of alarming trends, and are now playing an active role in local politics and education.
What’s the greatest upcoming challenge facing museums?
US demographics are rapidly and strongly shifting. First, speaking very broadly and generally, museum visitors are Caucasian, affluent, and well-educated. However, by 2050, there will be no dominant ethnic group – and the Hispanic population is greatly on the rise. There are no indicators that that population will assume the traditional museum-goers behaviors. Second, we have a massive population growth in seniors, which presents a host of issues related to mobility, cognitive impairments, and accessibility. Lastly, Millennials are becoming more and more prevalent and engaged at their museums, and are looking for very different experiences than traditionally provided.
A Park for You in a Sea of Thousands
Themed entertainment and attractions are beginning to collect more information about their guests, which will empower them to create entire parks that react specifically to each and every visitor. What sounds like destination fantasy is beginning to become destination reality today, and potentially an industry staple in ten years, says Jim Wible, attractions designer at PGAV Destinations. With the falling cost of the microchip and information storage, “invisible intelligence” will revolutionize destinations. For now, capital cost and risk aversion are the only things standing in its way. However, as more managers and operators realize the potential of getting guests out of lines and into profit-generating elements; and guests realize just how far personalization and customization can go to fit their park needs and wants, both sides will see the benefit – and will begin to sign up.
Similar to how we populate our Facebook and LinkedIn profiles about ourselves, a similar platform would provide information to a park about you. It’s entirely optional – you provide as much or as little information as you want – and the park tailors to you. A dark ride may lower its volume and raise the lights because you have a young one with you, or become more intense if it recognizes you’re riding with your teenagers. OLEDs (organic light emitting diodes) will begin to come in the form of paint, eliminating digital screens and will turn any surface into video. This immerses guests in an all-encompassing experience; and because the park knows how curious (or not) you are, it can specifically give you more (or less) information about something when you’re looking at it. If the park knows it’s your birthday, certain elements may wish you “happy birthday” as you stroll by; or alert park team members, who in turn will treat you to premium show seating or a complimentary dessert.
We’re already seeing the seeds of this in Disney’s recently announced MyMagic+, a new initiative that will allow a never-before-seen depth of trip customization for guests coupled with surprising, subtle park interactions queued by RFID wristbands. As this technology progresses and the benefits are realized, more affordable integrations of the hardware and software will become available – enabling numerous other destinations of smaller and differing sizes to adopt similar smart initiatives. Your tasting preferences at wineries might influence suggested vintages and tours. Your favorite seat at a nearby restaurant is reserved when you leave the house, the temperature at your table is cooled, and your favorite appetizer is put on the grill (the one that helps you reach that diet goal). Even at a smaller gaming site, an RFID wristband may keep track of your score, negating carrying around a giant wad of tickets to get your prized, life-sized stuffed zebra. As destinations adopt more of these “smart park initiatives,” they’ll have a wealth of data that can help them become more efficient, more effective experiences for their guests. Just five years out, you’ll start to find yourself surrounded by thousands of people at parks, but where the park seems to be there entirely just for you.
The Top Five Shifting Influences on Museums
Elizabeth Merritt, founding director at the Center for the Future of Museums
- More people want to be actively involved in the work of a museum, rather than be passive consumers of knowledge.
- Augmented reality is allowing more artifacts and their information to be accessed by guests when space doesn’t allow them to be presented.
- Crowd-funding is allowing thousands of people to contribute to a museum’s cause, even if they’ve never been there.
- Museums will educate their communities regarding safety as it pertains to the rising frequency and severity of weather, and will plan development with it in mind.
- With less financial resources, local governments may be redefining non-profit and tax-exempt status, triggering innovative resource management at museums.
The Power of Aspiration
No one wants a coffee mug. Nobody in their right mind needs a snow-globe. In fact, look in your dresser. Do you really want another t-shirt? No, probably not. And this is the challenge that destination retail faces – most guests don’t really want most of the merchandise you’re trying to sell. In fact, they want something that you can’t put a price-tag on, but you can design for it.
Aspiration. It’s an incredibly powerful emotional reaction. People around the world aspire towards millions of lifestyles that they don’t currently embody – humanitarian, brave, rich, powerful, brilliant – pick your dream. Since all of these can oftentimes take a lifetime to develop, or absolute circumstantial luck to realize (like winning the lottery or being born a Rockefeller), we tend to purchase products that help us feel like we’re part of that self-idealization we aspire towards, without the decades of education or work.
Your destination lends to these aspirations, whether you realize it or not. A well-thought out museum may appeal to someone’s aspiration to be a world-renown archaeologist and explorer of forgotten ruins. A theme park may appeal to someone’s aspiration to become a brave daredevil stuntman. A zoo or aquarium may appeal to someone’s aspiration to be a world-renown philanthropist, fighting against polar ice cap melting and habitat loss.
For nearly a decade, most destinations defined experiential retail as theming their retail environments to extend the brand and appearance of their destination. “However, emerging trends point that it’s about extending the lifestyle aspiration that the entire destination evokes in the guests, not just carrying through the colors and shapes of your attraction,” says PGAV Destinations VP John Kasman.
Take SeaWorld Orlando’s new Turtle Trek retail space. When guests make a purchase, the checkout counter glows a bright orange and an orange spotlight illuminates the customer from above (orange being a thematic, heroic color from the exhibit’s associated film). Behind the counter, a digitally-animated sea turtle and manatee swim in celebration as 5% of the purchase goes towards SeaWorld’s Conservation Fund. The retail space, instead of just extending the look of the exhibit, exemplifies the “ideal self” the customer may be aspiring towards by elevating them to the feeling of being a conservation hero.
A second ingredient is offering merchandise which emanates the “idealized self,” rather than overtly re-iterating the destination (for example, “I heart NY” t-shirts). It’s about offering products which, when used by the guest, make them feel an echo of the aspiration they felt at your destination. Most recently Disney has been offering its Vinylmation collectibles, small models of Mickey Mouse which begin as plain white, but allow people to easily color them in any way their minds can go. This capitalizes on the aspiration many of Disney’s parks inspire – guests wanting to be more creative, imaginative, and playful throughout their entire lives.
Realizing what a powerful motivator the aspiration to achieve the “idealized self” is for consumers by empathetically designing retail space and merchandise is not only a growing trend, it’s a success strategy.
Inclusive Design
Beginning in the late 1960s, federal disability access laws began to mandate greater accessibility to buildings in the United States. Since federal buildings were the first structures to require physical alterations to provide this level of accessibility, the Smithsonian was the very first museum in the country to begin retrofitting its museums, as early as the mid-1970s. Since the Smithsonian has served as a model of excellence for much of the American museum industry, many institutions across the country followed suit; and regretfully, not enough have looked back – or in the case of inclusive design, looked ahead.
The Americans with Disabilities Act was enacted by the US Congress in 1990, and serves as a 23-year-old law which provides minimum requirements to make buildings accessible to those with disabilities. Without revision since 2010, ADA requirements generally require physical elements that make buildings more navigable to those with mobility-associated disabilities, such as ramps, handrails, and elevators. While these federal mandates are an excellent first-step in providing great opportunities for a large portion of our population, too many institutions view them as a series of check-boxes to fulfill to avoid extensive fines or expensive retro-fitting. What they also tend to ignore is the incredible growing population of additional disabilities.
10,000 baby boomers in America turned 65 today, and 10,000 more will tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after, and so on. According to the US Department of Health and Human Services, more than a third of the US population is clinically obese – and that number is growing, both by count and by pant size. Heart disease, the leading cause of death in the United States, is on the rise in men, and prescription drug use has been steadily on the rise over the course of the last decade, according to a 2011 study by the Center for Disease Control.
Usher in “Inclusive Design,” a destination design principle considering how you can plan better multi-sensory experiences that can be enjoyed by all, regardless of your guests’ limitations. “If trends continue, it’s estimated that potentially one out of every three Americans may have some form of disability within ten years,” says Tom Owen, VP at PGAV Destinations. Like ADA, these were traditionally framed only in permanent, physical disabilities. However, we now more widely recognize Pervasive Development Disorders, ones which have their roots deeper in cognitive impairment and necessitating a wide range of inclusive elements. Most well-known of these is autism, where the large, crowded spaces of a museum can be panic-inducing for an individual. The AAM is currently developing a toolkit to help museums answer the new challenging destination question: how do we communicate the same high-quality message through written text, spoken words, images,
sounds, and even smells in captivating ways for audiences of all makes and models?
For now, brush up on Inclusive Design through the University of Cambridge’s website www.inclusivedesigntoolkit.com or AAM’s article, “Going Beyond: What Does Universal Design Look Like?” In the very near future, Inclusive Design may be far less of an idea, and far more of an industry standard.
Self-Sustaining, Better Worlds
Throughout the last couple decades in zoos and aquariums, advances have always taken the form of providing more authentic, better habitats for the animals and bringing visitors closer to them, both physically and emotionally. Three unique trends are beginning to emerge at a few zoos around the country, and may become widely adopted over the course of the next five years.
With dwindling resources and the impact of people on our planet, zoos are beginning to adopt a number of unique conservation and sustainability efforts. According to Emily Howard, VP at PGAV Destinations, we’ll see zoos and aquariums begin to grow their own food (used for the animals and guests), generate and utilize their own water, and produce their own energy. This will further position these destinations as conservation models for which much of their education is centered.
Complexity and exploration are the key elements to physically and mentally healthy animals in captivity, and sometimes wide open fields can be dull and can lead to stereotypic behavior. Some zoos are beginning to adopt a series of trails and miniature exhibits for the animals, rather than spacious enclosures. By providing multiple winding paths leading to way-stations of enrichment, animals are given the opportunity to travel farther and explore more sights, sounds, and smells than what they would in a large, contiguous space. Very commonly in the zoo and aquarium industry we find institutions landlocked – surrounded by highways or city buildings. This emerging design principle may provide these institutions with a fresh opportunity – a way to re-imagine current spaces in a way that proves more stimulating for their animals and more meaningful for their guests without having to expand their walls.
Some industry experts suggest that we may soon see animals with greater control over their environments. By implanting a small, harmless microchip in animals, they may be able to activate certain exhibit elements within range – dispense food or water, open a gate, or control enclosure temperature. In addition, guests would be able to track an elusive animal in an exhibit with their smartphones, and learn about its current, hidden behavior. These principles are similar to what we see as an emerging trend in the themed entertainment and attractions industry with smart parks. However, with the digital information being gathered at these destinations, the guests are the ones generating the information and are thus having an impact on their environment; whereas at zoos and aquariums, we may see the RFID tracking of the animals having an impact on the environment and the guests’ experience. In addition, this tracking would allow 24/7 monitoring of the animals, potentially leading to a whole new depth of research and understanding about their behavior.
